Polar change and global impacts

Antarctic melt freshwater fluxes

Connecting Antarctic ice loss to Southern Ocean change by combining observations and modelling of freshwater sources, pathways and impacts

Freshwater released from Antarctica plays a crucial role in the Earth system. It enters the Southern Ocean through ice discharge across grounding lines, melting beneath floating ice shelves, iceberg calving and surface meltwater runoff. These freshwater fluxes contribute to sea-level rise, influence the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, and help regulate ocean circulation patterns that connect Antarctica to the global climate system. Yet many of the processes involved remain poorly quantified because they occur beneath ice shelves, across vast remote regions, and vary strongly in space and time. 

This alliance brought together the European Commission-funded projects OCEAN:ICE and SO-CHIC with ESA’s Polar+ Ice Shelves and SO-ICE projects to better understand how freshwater released from Antarctica affects the Southern Ocean and the global climate system.  

Polar+ Ice Shelves provided satellite-based measurements of ice-shelf mass change, grounding-line discharge, calving and ice-shelf melt, while OCEAN:ICE and SO-CHIC investigated interactions between Antarctic ice, freshwater and ocean circulation. Building on earlier research and collaboration in the alliance, ESA provided additional funding through SO-ICE, strengthening cooperation between the glaciology and oceanography community to investigate how the observed Antarctic freshwater modifies ocean circulation, water-mass formation, heat transport and climate processes.  

Together, the projects bridge a critical scientific gap: from measuring freshwater inputs at their source to understanding their consequences throughout the Southern Ocean.

Overview of key challenges in Antarctic mass budget. 1) AIS budget is driven by incoming precipitation (blue arrows) that together with mass loss at the margins and under ice shelves drives ice flow (white arrows). 2) Mass loss from Antarctic ice shelves is driven by ocean processes, where in situ observations are scarce, but new autonomous vehicles are bringing new data. 3) Iceberg calving is a process that EO data have shown is increasingly important in the total mass budget but is still poorly modelled. 4) In situ observations (e.g., via ApRES) under ice shelves of melt, thinning, and 5) water properties adjacent to the ice shelf are crucial for testing both models and EO datasets. 6) Climate models have shown improved progress in resolving AIS climate processes, but, especially with coupled models, challenges remain. The development of ML approaches brings both models and data closer together. 7) EO data are a game-changer in the monitoring of AIS mass budget and in process understanding. 8) Monitoring the deep Southern Ocean via Argo floats and other instruments further afield is crucial to identify the far-field effects of the AIS. 

A major alliance outcome highlighted that Antarctica has experienced an average net ice-sheet loss of approximately 109 ± 56 Gt per year over the past three decades, while new Earth observation products now provide continent-wide estimates of grounding-line discharge, ice-shelf basal melt and calving fluxes at monthly to annual timescales. The work also identified key uncertainties in surface meltwater runoff, grounding-line locations, basal melt rates and ice thickness, helping define priorities for future monitoring and model development. 

A second alliance result delivered the most comprehensive compilation to date of Southern Ocean mooring observations, bringing together 521 mooring time series from 470 sites, some extending back to the 1970s. The resulting dataset provides unprecedented information on the variability of water masses around Antarctica. Combined with satellite observations of ice-sheet and ice-shelf change it also enabled the creation of a new Southern Ocean full-depth climatology, improving the representation of Antarctic shelf seas, dense water formation and ocean-ice interactions. 

Contributing EC & ESA projects

EC

OCEAN:ICE

OCEAN:ICE aims to assess how Antarctic Ice Sheet and Southern Ocean processes influence sea-level rise, deep-water formation, ocean circulation and climate. It combines new observations, satellite data and coupled ice-sheet–ocean–climate modelling to improve estimates of ice loss and reduce uncertainty in projections of future climate change.

EC

SO-CHIC

SO-CHIC aims to understand and quantify variability in Southern Ocean heat and carbon budgets by investigating the processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. Combining observations and modelling, it seeks to reduce uncertainties in climate projections and improve representation of Southern Ocean processes in Earth System Models.

ESA

SO-ICE

SO-ICE aims to improve understanding of Antarctic ice–ocean interactions by combining EO observations of ice-shelf flow and thickness with ocean observations and modelling. Focusing on the Weddell Sea, it investigates how ocean circulation drives ice-shelf change and how these interactions affect the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.