Anticipating biodiversity change and identifying pathways towards a nature-positive society requires integrating ecological models, environmental observations and societal scenarios. The IPBES Nature Futures Framework, Scenarios and Models Assessment and Transformative Change Assessment provide important scientific foundations for exploring alternative biodiversity futures and pathways towards transformative change.
This Alliance connects projects selected under the Horizon Europe call Advancing integrated scenarios and prediction models for informing transition to a nature-positive society with planned ESA Biodiversity+ activities. Combining biodiversity scenarios and predictive models with satellite observations could improve our understanding of ecosystem change and strengthen biodiversity projections.
New satellite capabilities, including BIOMASS for forest structure, FLEX for vegetation functioning, and hyperspectral missions such as EnMAP and the future CHIME for vegetation composition and traits, offer opportunities to improve ecological modelling, alongside long-term Copernicus observations and in-situ data.
Following project selection, participating consortia will be invited to define cooperation modalities and propose joint deliverables. Collaborative outputs will be jointly defined between projects and may include, but are not limited to:
- Aligning monitoring campaigns, datasets, scenarios and model assumptions;
- Facilitating access to and uptake of satellite products and related methodologies through data sharing agreements and open science practices;
- Defining joint monitoring protocols, working towards defining community standards or aligning geographic scope;
- Coordinating data-management and open science approaches;
- Developing shared outputs such as jointly defined datasets, open tools, joint publications, community standards, assessment contributions and policy briefs;
- Joint communication activities;
- Training and capacity building activities, exchange of staff and/or young researchers.
Collaboration is expected to evolve with the scientific needs of the participating projects. Further exchanges during Horizon Europe Annual Meetings, relevant scientific workshops and conferences will be encouraged, to provide opportunities to identify additional cooperation based on the evolving needs and added value for participating projects.